For the first time this week, a new weekly post compiling for you the latest aid and development links from around the world. For comments and link suggestions, email sdunstan@lowyinstitute.org.

• The world's population is projected to reach 9.6 billion by 2050. The developed regions will remain stable but the 49 least developed countries are projected to double in size.
• What sort of ambassador to the UN will Samantha Power be? Interesting analysis of Power's impressive academic credentials and the role they might play in diplomacy.
• In the face of falling aid budgets, Helen Clark has unveiled a new draft strategy for UNDP, taking the number of outcomes from 25 to 7.
• Jo Chandler writes a powerful piece on TB in PNG, including her own experience contracting the disease.
• In case you missed it: The Economist's 'How to eradicate extreme poverty' feature is well worth a read.
• Think you're a development expert? Test you knowledge on The Guardian's  interactive quizz on food and nutrition.
• Vale Helen Hughes AO, who died in Sydney last weekend. As the founding head of the ANU's National Centre for Development Studies in 1983, she played a strong role in shaping the direction of Australia's official aid program in the 1980s and 1990s.
• Beautiful, haunting images by photographer Patrick Brown of the illegal animal trade in SE Asia.
• Freetown Fash Pack, a photoblog set up by Australian development worker Jo Dunlop who takes gorgeous photos of the fashion conscious in Freetown, Sierra Leone.
  

Earlier this month, Myer Melanesia Program Director Jenny Hayward Jones released a new paper, Big Enough for all of us: Geo-Strategic Competition in the Pacific Islands, challenging assumptions about what China is up to in the Pacific.

Jenny's work drew on the research of Dr Philippa Brant, a new Lowy Institute Research Associate, whose PhD thesis closely examined China's aid program in the Pacific.

Above, Jenny and Philippa discuss what kind of donor China is (0:31), with Philippa saying that, despite the high figures often quoted for Chinese aid, one needs to view them in comparison with other donors. For example, between 2006-2011, China spent approx $850 million on aid, compared to Australia's $4.8 billion. Jenny and Philippa also cover the likelihood of an increase in Chinese aid (1:48) and the possibility for Australia-US-China aid cooperation (2:30).

Last week Lowy Institute Executive Director Michael Fullilove caught up with one of the Institute's newest board members, Ambassador Chan Heng Chee. Ambassador Chan is the first member of the Board from Asia and was Singapore's Ambassador to the US from 1996 to 2012.

In this short video Ambassador Chan has some interesting observations on the ability of 'middle powers' to influence multilateral decision-making (1:06), citing Australia's success as APEC as an example (1:50). Also insightful are the Ambassadors observations on how Singapore has changed politically over recent years (2:40): 'I'm struck by how open the place has become'.

China's activities in the Pacific Islands are being viewed in the same light as its growing geo-strategic role in Asia. Australia's recent Defence White Paper 2013 cautioned that Australia's role in the Pacific may well be balanced in the future by the growing influence of Asian nations. America has stepped up its aid to the Pacific out of concern for China's rising influence.

In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, Big Enough For All Of Us: Geo-Strategic Competition in the Pacific Islands, Jenny Hayward-Jones, Director of The Myer Foundation Melanesia Program, argues that it is inaccurate and potentially counter-productive to view China's activities in the region in geo-strategic terms (an argument immediately picked up in the media).

In this short video Jenny discusses her main arguments with Lowy Institute Research Associate Dr Philippa Brant, including how she was motivated to write the paper in response to the constant question she received from visitors to the Lowy Institute (‘so what is China up to the Pacific?; see 0:30). Jenny says her arguments challenge what many in this field are writing about China's motivations in the Pacific (1:09, 2:32) and, in a quirky insight, she admits she 'stole' the title for her Analysis from Hillary Clinton's comment at last year's Pacific Islands Forum that the region is 'big enough for us all' (0:20).

'Rather than speculate on China’s future ambitions, Australia and the United States should focus on making more of their evolving relationships with China, and cooperate with China in aid and investment activities that support Pacific Island development priorities', Jenny says.

Yesterday the Lowy Institute was privileged to host two of Australia's most prominent Burma watchers, Dr Andrew Selth of the Griffith Asia Institute and Dr Sean Turnell from Macquarie University, for a discussion on Burma's recent rapid transformation.

Interpreter readers will be  familiar with Andrew's work, as he regularly contributes blog posts on Burma. Dr Sean Turnell was recently 'outed' by Aung San Suu Kyi on CNN as her 'favourite' economist.

Following the event, Lowy Institute Executive Director Michael Fullilove sat down with Sean and Andrew for a brief conversation on Burma's reform process. Sean and Andrew gave their views on the likelihood of Aung San Suu Kyi becoming president (0:46) and the depth of economic reform since 2011 (1:47). Both conclude that they are cautiously optimistic about Burma's future (3:45).

For those who missed the event, catch up via podcast or review the Lowy Institute's Twitter feed, which includes live tweets from the event.

On 17 April the Lowy Institute and the Australia India Institute launched a groundbreaking poll looking at Indian perceptions of Australia (the link includes the poll in full and a short video interview with report author, Rory Medcalf), gaining insight into what Indians really think of our governance, education, ban on uranium sales, shared Indian Ocean security, and of course the Australian cricket team.

The poll was quickly picked up by domestic and international media, with pieces in The Australian, The Times of India, SBS,  Radio National, to name a few, as well as a tweet and a press release from Foreign Minister Bob Carr welcoming the poll.

The launch of the poll that evening, hosted by our corporate partner PwC Australia at their Darling Harbour offices, involved a fascinating panel discussion with Christopher Kremmer (Australia India Institute), Neville Roach (Australia India Institute) and Mark Laurie (Partner, PwC Australia). Chaired by the ABC's Geraldine Doogue, the panel discussion delved into what Australia and India could do with such rich data as well as discussing some of the surprising results. A podcast of the event is now available, and coming soon will be a short video. 

A poll released today by the Lowy Institute and the Australia India Institute reveals some surprising findings on Indian public opinion towards Australia.

For example, despite bad press over the security of Indian students in 2009-10, Indians hold relatively warm feelings towards Australia, ranking it fourth out of 22 countries in the survey. And 60% of Indians surveyed think it would be better if India's government and society worked more like Australia's. But there are lingering concerns about previous crimes against Indian students: 62% of Indians consider Australia a dangerous place for Indian students, although 53% consider it safer than it was a few years ago.

I sat down with the Lowy Institute's Rory Medcalf, the poll's author, to discuss the warmth Indians feel towards Australia (0:44), their concerns regarding racism in Australia (1:25), how the Australian cricket team is doing its bit diplomatically (3:15) and the sticky issue of uranium sales (3:55). Rory's reflections on what the results say about the future of Australia-India relations (1.44) are particularly insightful. In Rory's words, this not time for the Australia 'to be complacent' about our relationship with India, warning that memories of the 2009-10 student incidents can easily rise up and tarnish this important relationship.

The Poll is already receiving wide domestic and international media coverage, with opinion pieces in both The Hindu and The Australian. You can follow the Poll on Twitter using #indiaauspoll.

Following his address at the Lowy Institute last Friday (podcast & video), Human Rights Executive Director Ken Roth sat down with the Lowy Institute's Michael Fullilove for a quick discussion on what Australia could achieve in its two-year term on the UNSC. 

Roth offers practical and sage advice for Australia to avoid the risk of 'shuffling papers and keeping the seat warm for two years'. Australia should 'choose a priority and run with it intensely' (0:26).

On Australia's efforts to further human rights, Roth gives a relatively positive report (citing Australia's work in North Korea and Burma), but he singles out China and Sri Lanka as places 'where Australia has been most disappointing' (1:55).

On China, Roth suggests Australia must 'multilaterise' with like-minded governments to progress a human rights agenda. Roth advocates for Australian diplomacy to be targeted directly at the Chinese people through expanding social media networks like Weibo, rather than with the foreign ministry (2:02). 

Stay tuned for a second video with Ken Roth on human rights and military drones.

Last Friday the Lowy Institute released a new Policy Brief from Research Director Anthony Bubalo which urges the Australian Government, business and community groups to use Australia's hosting of the Asian Cup in 2015 to strengthen Australia's broader engagement with Asia. In this video, Anthony discusses the themes of his paper:

The concept of 'football diplomacy' was first analysed by Anthony in his 2005 Policy Brief and was the subject of a November 2012 conference. Football diplomacy has gained greater currency within the Australian Government, but according to Anthony, examples of it remain scant and 'episodic' (1:38). To realise the opportunities of Australia hosting the 2015 Asian Cup, Anthony calls for a relaunch of football diplomacy, recommending:

• A Football Asia Council be formed to coordinate various stakeholders to build a program of football diplomacy activities around the Asian Cup (2:33).
• The development of a one-stop digital and social media platform to support networking and engagement activities (2:49).
• Targeted support from Government and the Football Federation for football diplomacy activities, including through Australia's diplomatic and trade network in Asia (3:22).

The Lowy Institute was honoured to host former US Senator and vice-presidential nominee Joseph Lieberman during his visit to Australia. 

Following a boardroom lunch with political, business and media leaders, Senator Lieberman caught up with Michael Fullilove for a fascinating discussion on America's domestic governance challenges (0:44), what we can expect from John Kerry as Secretary of State (2:00) and how seriously Washington is prepared for the challenges and opportunities of the Asian century (4:44).

For the security wonks, Senator Lieberman's positive comments on the so-called 'pivot' to Asia are particularly striking (4:55). As Lieberman says when challenged by Michael Fullilove that the pivot is last year's story: 'We can't afford to let that happen. It's got to be this century's story.'

With a G20 leaders' meeting happening in Russia this weekend, it's an opportune time to catch up with the Lowy Institute's G20 Studies Centre Director, Mike Callaghan.  

At the end of January, Mike authored a new Lowy Institute Analysis, Relaunching the G20, which was quickly picked up in domestic and international media for its practical nine-point advice on how Australia can make the most of its chairing role in 2014.

In this latest 'In conversation' video, Mike elaborates on the arguments in his Analysis, reminding us why the G20 remains important (0:22), why it must be 'relaunched' to overcome its shortcomings from previous summits (1:10) and why Australia must to begin preparations now for its 2014 chairing role (2.32). 

2014 may still feel like some time away, but as Mike points out, 'It's going to take a lot of hard work. It's going to take a lot of preparation. And Australia should be starting to do it now'.

In this short video I talk with East Asia Program Director Linda Jakobson about the conclusions of her new Analysis paper, launched today, China's Foreign Policy Dilemma.

As part of her research, Linda, who lived in China for twenty years before moving to Sydney to join the Lowy Institute, conducted extensive interviews with officials and experts in China on the new leaders, who were announced at the 18th Party Congress in November last year. 

Linda observes that foreign policy is hardly a pressing issue for China's new leaders. Domestic challenges, particularly the imperative of robust economic growth, will be the foremost concerns of Communist Party leader Xi Jinping. And that, she says, could be a 'recipe for disaster'. A reactive foreign policy fueled by nationalism is a cause for real concern as tensions with China's neighbours over disputed islands reach potentially explosive heights. 

In just three minutes, Linda Jakobson outlines why regional stability in East Asia could be under threat. This is a must watch. And a must read.

The Pacific Islands region is a latecomer to telecommunications regulation and reform. But cheap mobile phones have flooded the region over the last 5 to 10 years, coinciding with the rise of social media. Now Pacific Islanders have the means to access political debate in ways they had never been able before. Facebook discussion groups, mass meetings and social media-organised protests are increasingly prominent, especially among youths. 

In the above short video I talk with former Lowy Institute research associate Danielle Cave who, before leaving the Institute to work for the Australian Government, released Digital Islands: How the Pacific's ICT Revolution is Transforming the Region.

I ask Danielle (at 2.17) if there is the potential for the Pacific Islands region to have its own Arab uprising. Her answer brought to mind the work of BBC journalist Mishal Husain, who was a guest of the Lowy Institute in March 2012. Mishal delivered a fascinating lecture on 'How Facebook Changed the World', based on her experience reporting from the Arab Spring. Her post-event video discussion with Anthony Bubalo is a great one to watch if you're interested in the role social media played, and continues to play, in Middle East politics.

On Tuesday, Jeffrey Goldberg visited the Lowy Institute, where we recorded this discussion with our Executive Director Michael Fullilove.

Jeffrey Goldberg is a national correspondent for The Atlantic, writing primarily on Arab and Israeli politics. He has won numerous awards, including the National Magazine Award for reporting during his time at The New Yorker. Goldberg is also the author of Prisoners: A Muslim and a Jew Across the Middle East Divide.

In the above conversation Goldberg comments on the recent conflict between Israel and Hamas (0.21), considers what impact Israel's Iron Dome missile defence system had on that conflict (1.24) and Iran's future nuclear capability (2.03). The discussion also traverses the likelihood of a US military response to a nuclear Iran (4.14) and Democrat-Republican differences on US foreign policy in the Middle East (6.34).

Goldberg's influence on US policy debates about these issues is significant; this is a must-watch.

The 18th Chinese Communist Party Congress that starts on 8 November is a landmark event, says the Lowy Institute's East Asia Program Director Linda Jakobson in a short video primer on the meeting.

Not only will a new general secretary be chosen but two thirds of the country's top decision makers will also be replaced. Of the nine-man standing committee only two will continue to serve.

The new generation of Chinese leaders are younger and better educated than their predecessors and because of the complex network of patronage within the government the effects of the changes at the top will be felt in every corner of the country.

And here's Linda's take on what we know about China's new leaders:

On Wednesday the Lowy Institute held a sold-out event with Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the UN's Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC).

Figueres, who happened to be at the Lowy Institute on international UN Day, gave a colourful and informative overview of the status of international climate change negotiations a month before countries meet in Doha, Qatar to nut out the details on a second Kyoto framework period.

Figueres pointed the finger at the media for its willingness to report on the failures of Copenhagen, rather than what she describes as 'rapid progress' in the last three years (in a side joke with the audience she admitted that her job, which she has held since 2010, was teaching her the virtues of patience).

Figueres addressed the touchy subject of Australia's carbon tax, reminding us that Australia is the number one per capita emitter of carbon globally, and with that comes the responsibility to act. Australia should not feel 'lonely', with Figueres listing developed and developing countries that are also considered climate change innovators. 

• Christiana Figueres, Executive Director of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change will be at the Lowy Institute tomorrow to talk about her expectations for the Doha climate conference next month.



• The former President of the Maldives, Mohamed Nasheed (pictured), is a great publicist for climate change issues. He was underwater when he resigned earlier this year and was the subject of a doco about his campaign for international climate measures.
• Australia's credentials as a champion of action to tackle climate change were part of our pitch for the UN Security Council seat. However, the paper on Barriers to Effective Climate Change Adaptation is yet to be released by the government (the draft version can be viewed here).
• Climate change finance is a big issue that will be a significant talking point at the Doha climate meeting in Qatar, especially in regard to Australia's role helping Melanesia and Pacific neighbours that may go under. The Lowy Institute released a paper on this issue last year.

Photo by Chiara Goia.

Ahead of the final presidential debate today, it's worth revisiting the humorous and insightful comments made by James Fallows when he visited us at the Lowy Institute in September.

James, who is national correspondent for The Atlantic and a former presidential speechwriter, spoke to blog editor Sam Roggeveen nominally about Political Media: Old and New, but during the discussion he touched on a much wider range of subjects. As well as analysing the evolution of media and its impact on political discourse, in the US and China, Fallows talked about his experiences on the Romney campaign bus and living in China, as well as observing the racial element to the 2012 presidential race. 

Photo by Anthony Anderton.

Australia now has a seat at the two biggest global tables: the G20 and the United Nations Security Council, says Lowy Institute Executive Director Michael Fullilove. This will increase our international leverage and reputation, and be a source of prestige. However, it will stretch our foreign policy establishment, too.

In a video response to the news of Australia's win at the UN Security Council, Michael talks about what it means for Australia and what happens next.

On the morning of the launch of Professor Hugh White's book The China Choice at the Lowy Institute, Professor Anatol Lieven spoke to White about some of the issues raised in the book. Click here for parts 1, 2 and 3.

In the final part of their discussion, Professor Hugh White and Professor Anatol Lieven turn to the potential paths forward for the major powers in Asia. White defends his proposal of a 'Concert of Asia' by citing the Congress of Vienna, which brought stability to Europe. It is no coincidence, says White, that the 19th century was also the European century, since geopolitical stability was the foundation for prosperity. Building a similar foundation of peace in Asia should be the goal of policymakers, White says, but it will require real political effort. 

Just before the launch of Professor Hugh White's book, The China Choice, Professor Anatol Lieven spoke to him about some of the issues raised in the book. Click here for parts 1 and 2.

In the third part of their conversation, Lieven asks White what role Australia can play in avoiding catastrophic war in Asia. White warns that there is a genuine risk that Australia will unthinkingly follow historical precedent since we have always had a Western power protecting us in the Pacific. However, it would be folly to assume we always will. He envisages a more active role for Australia in influencing the US towards a more conciliatory policy in Asia.

On the morning of the launch of Professor Hugh White's book The China Choice at the Lowy Institute, Professor Anatol Lieven spoke to White about some of the issues raised in the book. Part 1 can be seen here. 

In the second part of their conversation, Lieven raises the question of values in international relations. The US, he argues, is too enamoured of its own system and by the idea that it is on the 'right side of history' to respect countries with other economic and political models. 

Politicians and pundits in the US have been all too eager to castigate China for its human rights record, state involvement in the economy and suppression of political rights but, White asks, what are they prepared to pay for the privilege of proselytising their own system?

In a year of mounting tensions between China and the US in the South China Sea, Lowy Institute Visiting Fellow Professor Hugh White's book, The China Choice, is a timely and important contribution to international policy debate.

The recent anti-Japan protests show a dark combative side of Chinese nationalism while the fragility of relations in the Asia Pacific is demonstrated by President Barack Obama's and Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney's repeated accusations that China is flouting WTO regulations. As White cautions in his book, we ignore the seismic shift in power from west to east at our peril.

The final chapter of my video series with leading intelligence expert Dr Jennifer Sims, Visiting Professor at Georgetown University, discusses the role of women in the security/intelligence field.

Dr Sims talks about the tremendous change in intelligence studies in the US, with a significant number of well-known women reaching senior levels in the field. It is a testament to the national security studies programs at universities across the US, says Dr Sims, which are becoming 'increasingly female in their composition' — not because they are looking at gender statistics but because they are 'looking for who is good' when searching to bring people into programs.

Women are increasingly occupying key security and intelligence positions in the US, and Dr Sims encourages women in Australia who are interested in national security studies to pursue it as a career.

It's a compelling conclusion to the discussion with Dr Sims on the future of intelligence, following from the first on intelligence and the information revolution and the second on the relationship between internet penetration and government instability. These videos were recorded in July while Dr Sims was in Canberra, engaging with the Lowy Institute and policy community guests as part of the Lowy Institute's UNISYS National Security Event Series.

In part two of my interview with world renowned intelligence expert and Visiting Professor at Georgetown University's Center for Security Studies Dr Jennifer Sims, we discuss the close relationship between internet penetration and government instability.

Dr Sims presents her theory about how the spread of 'viral' ideas, through improved internet/communication mediums, can lead to rapid mobilisation of these ideas across the citizenry, which may force government instability. Dr Sims looks at examples in the Middle East and Africa, where internet penetration has quickly moved from 15% to 40% of the population, which she calls 'the critical period where political instability can happen'. The rapid spread of communications is empowering to people and can be for good, says Dr Sims, but governments need to take notice.

Another fascinating discussion on the future of intelligence, complimenting the first video with Dr Sims on intelligence and the information revolution. A third and final video will be released next week. These videos were recorded in July while Dr Sims was in Canberra, engaging with the Lowy Institute and policy community guests as part of the Lowy Institute's UNISYS National Security Event Series.