From: Rory Medcalf, International Security Program Director, Lowy Institute for International Policy

To: Hon. Stephen Smith, Minister for Foreign Affairs

Your Government needs to seize the moment with Asia’s other waking giant, India.  I was struck by your attention to India as a priority for the Rudd Government, in your first published speech as Foreign Minister on 3 December. This excellent rhetoric needs to be translated briskly into policy moves across the political/diplomatic, security, economic and social dimensions.

Many countries are courting India.  Yet there exists genuine potential for Australia and India to build a truly strategic relationship. A partnership with the world’s only democratic mega-state, and a vital power in Australia’s broader region, could in time come to match those we have with China and Japan. More...

From: Fergus Hanson, Research Associate, Lowy Institute 

To: Hon. Stephen Smith, Minister for Foreign Affairs

Before you have too much time to settle into the new job, you can be almost certain a crisis will erupt in the neighbourhood. Will Fiji’s Commodore start backtracking on his commitment to hold elections by March 2009? Will riots erupt in Solomon Islands or East Timor again? With so much going on in the wider world the natural temptation will be to take a reactive approach. I would urge a thorough reassessment of the way we engage with the region, consistent with the promise of fresh ideas for the Pacific made by Prime Minister Rudd during a speech at the Lowy Institute in July.  More...

FROM: Hugh White, Visiting Fellow at the Lowy Institute and Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University

TO: Hon. Kevin Rudd,  Prime Minister

At your campaign launch you listed the rise of China and India among the biggest challenges Australia faces over coming years.  Of course you were right. The biggest foreign policy challenge Australia faces today is how we define and protect our interests in the transformation of the Asian international order being driven by the rise of China and India, and the concurrent (and in some ways consequent) historic shift in Japan’s strategic personality. For thirty-five years since Nixon went to China, Northeast Asia has prospered under a stable strategic order based on the willing acceptance by both Japan and China of US primacy in return for the protection it offered each from the other. That has in turn been the foundation of peace and stability throughout the rest of the Western Pacific, including Australia.

But now that stable order is under challenge from its own success. More...

FROM:  Hugh White, Visiting Fellow at the Lowy Institute and Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University

TO: Hon. Joel Fitzgibbon, Minister for Defence

Once the introductory briefings are out of the way, your first priority in Defence will be to commission a new White Paper. This was a clear election campaign commitment, and it is also a very good idea. The current White Paper, Defence 2000, was produced seven eventful years ago. Since then we have seen global upheavals like September 11 and the invasion of Iraq, and local crises in East Timor and Solomon Islands, while in the background the rise of China and India have continued the tectonic transformation of Australia’s strategic environment in Asia. The previous government did not respond well to these challenges to their defence policy. The important questions which these events raised were never effectively answered, and in the resulting confusion they committed a lot of money on new capabilities which are unlikely to earn their keep.

Before you start, though, it would be a good idea to think carefully about what exactly you want the White Paper to achieve. More...

FROM: Malcolm Cook, Asia and the Pacific Program Director, Lowy Institute

TO: Hon. Stephen Smith, Minister for Foreign Affairs

Congratulations on becoming Australia’s new Foreign Minister, especially during such an exciting and challenging period when the contours and power relations in East Asia are rapidly changing, as is the nature and global role of our nearest Asian neighbour, Indonesia. Timing is important in foreign policy and the Australia’s election date was not fortuitous, especially given the change in government. It meant that you missed the East Asia Summit, which hopefully will play a larger and more central role in Australian foreign policy and East Asian integration.  

Missing the East Asia Summit is particularly bad timing, as this newest of regional inter-state bodies holds great potential for Australia for three reasons which justify a concerted effort on Australia's part to entrench this new body, despite China’s determined lack of interest in the Summit and the Asia-Pacific’s proliferation of regional bodies all greater on process and rhetoric than on action. More...