Back in June we featured an article by the former Australian diplomat and now consultant Philip Eliason on what was then the still distant possibility that the rebel movement arrayed against Muamar Qadhafi would retake Tripoli and topple the regime.

Well, welcome to 22 August. The capital has reportedly fallen into the hands of the rebels, and two of Qadhafi's sons have been captured.

I spoke to Philip Eliason just over an hour ago to ask him what his contacts in Libya were telling him about the situation there, and how he expects things to develop. He is not optimistic — the rebel movement is not coherent (expect fighting to continue even after Qadhafi escapes, is captured or killed) and has shown worrying signs that it will seek retribution against its enemies.

You can listen here.

Photo by Flickr user Nasser Nouri.