The media is reporting that the Defence White Paper will be released tomorrow. The document itself will presumably appear here first, and in the hours and days after the launch, we will have commentary from a range of experts both here and on Twitter (look for the #ausdef13 hashtag).
In the meantime, here's some suggested Lowy Institute reading, starting with the long debate we ran last year on Australia's Defence Challenges. You'll find contributions there from James Brown, Hugh White, James Goldrick, Christopher Joye, Tom Hyland, Jim Molan, Rory Medcalf, David Morrison, Mike Green, Paul Dibb and more. And here's a small selection of longer papers:
John Angevine, Dangerous Luxuries:
The plan for the modernisation of the Australian Defence Force (ADF) is focused on expensive maritime and air capabilities for conflicts the ADF could not fight alone. Consequently, the ADF is exposed with an atrophying ground force and expeditionary capability for the low-level regional operations in which it will be most likely to engage.
Hugh White, A Focused Force: Australia's Defence Priorities in the Asian Century:
The biggest risk is not that China becomes a direct threat to Australia but that the erosion of American power unleashes strategic competition among Asia's strongest states, which in turn increases the risk that Australia could face a number of military threats to its interests, even its territorial security.
Alan Dupont, Inflection Point: The Australian Defence Force After Afghanistan:
With Afghanistan’s end game in sight, and a new Defence White Paper on the horizon, it is time for a vigorous public debate about the priorities of the ADF so that we do not repeat the mistakes of the post-Vietnam period and prepare for the wrong conflicts, made worse by ill-conceived strategy and chronic underfunding.