Less than a month ago I somewhat incredulously noted a prediction from the Council on Foreign Relations' Joshua Kurlantzick that Tony Abbott would be ousted as Prime Minister in a Liberal Party revolt in 2015.

Kurlantzick must be feeling pretty good about that prediction right about now.

We'll see after Tuesday's leadership spill whether Abbott survives, but meanwhile, Kurlantzick has written a follow-up post saying Tony Abbott has to go:

Abbott’s policies have been all over the map, and the lack of coherence has often made the prime minister seem ill-informed and incapable of understanding complex policy issues. In press conferences, Abbott has offered mixed public messages about some of the health care reforms that were at the center of his agenda, and sometimes has seemed unsure himself of what health legislation has actually been passed on his watch. He also has seemed unsure of what he promised in the past regarding Australia’s major public broadcaster – he promised not to touch it – before he went ahead made cuts to it. He also looked completely baffled on climate change issues at the G20 summit in Australia last year.

We'll have more international reaction to the Government's leadership woes next week.