Monday 18 Nov 2019 | 01:27 | SYDNEY
What's happening on
  • 15 Nov 2019 12:30

    Ayodhya verdict and unruly consequences

    India’s Supreme Court has delivered a ruling that will embolden the Hindu right and challenge the country’s secularism.

  • 15 Nov 2019 10:00

    Autocrats Anonymous

    A White House confessional reveals Donald Trump incapable of change – a kind of Marvel superhero, but less interesting.

  • 15 Nov 2019 06:00

    Book Review: The original corporate raiders

    Historian William Dalrymple looks at how a small trading company in London became a mighty army and conquered India.

About the project

A focus on Pacific Islands has been a central component of the Lowy Institute’s work for more than a decade. We research contemporary challenges facing the Pacific islands region in areas including geostrategic competition, sustainable economic development, governance and leadership challenges, poverty alleviation, and Australia’s relationship with Pacific countries and organisations. We also hold major conferences, workshops, dialogues and exchanges. We have produced influential work on Australia’s Regional Assistance Mission to the Solomon Islands, the 2006 Fiji Coup, normalising Australia’s bilateral relationship with Fiji, Australia’s bilateral relationship with Papua New Guinea, the future development challenges of Papua New Guinea, the economic benefits of greater labour mobility between Australia and the South Pacific, security and resilience dynamics in the Pacific, and foreign aid flows in the Pacific.

The Institute manages four major projects focusing on the Pacific:

The Pacific Research Program (PRP) is a consortium partnership between the Lowy Institute and the Australian National University’s Department of Pacific Affairs and Development Policy Centre, with the support of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. The PRP is designed to be a globally pre-eminent centre of excellence for research on the Pacific. More details are available here.

The Lowy Institute Pacific Aid Map is supported by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and is designed to enhance aid effectiveness in the Pacific.

The Australia-PNG Network is a project supported by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, designed to foster people-to-people links between Australia and Papua New Guinea. More details are available here.

The South Pacific Fragile States Project was a project supported by the Department of Defence to produce independent research and forward looking analysis on the key drivers of instability in the South Pacific and the associated security challenges for Australia and the wider region. More details are available here.

THE MAPPING FOREIGN ASSISTANCE IN THE PACIFIC PROJECT

The Lowy Institute Pacific Aid Map is an analytical tool designed to enhance aid effectiveness in the Pacific by improving coordination, alignment, and accountability of foreign aid through enhanced transparency of aid flows. The Pacific Aid Map has collected data on close to 13,000 projects in 14 countries supplied by 62 donors from 2011 onwards. All data has been made freely available on this interactive platform, allowing users to investigate and manipulate the information in a variety of ways. The Pacific Aid Map is supported by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

The Lowy Institute Pacific Aid map is available here.

Country profiles from Pacific Islands countries can be found here.

See the Chinese Aid in the Pacific map here.

 

 

Latest publications

Aid & development links: US threat to Pakistan, cholera in Yemen, transfer pricing and more

  • President Trump is trying to pressure allies, notably Pakistan, by threatening to cut foreign aid if they don’t cooperate with the American mission in Afghanistan. Writing for the Washington Post, Jessica Trisko Darden concludes this tactic that never works. 
     
  • Devex has produced a special feature on the history of public opinion on foreign aid in the United States.
     
  • The Heritage Foundation, a conservative Washington think-tank, has teased the results of an upcoming report on 13 recommended reforms for the American aid program.
     
  • Annmaree O’Keeffe has written for The Interpreter on the cholera epidemic in Yemen, describing it as a 'totally preventable catastrophe'. Jonathan Kennedy argues that Saudi Arabia should be taking a lot of the blame.
     
  • Maya Forstater writes for the Centre for Global Development on the hugely detrimental impact of transfer pricing on resource rich developing countries.
     
  • The Development Policy Centre has produced a new report advocating for a scaling up of Australian aid for medical research. The authors provide a summary here.
     
  • The ABC has recently reported on the growing role a select number of private companies play in delivering the Australian aid program. While the private sector has always had a role in delivering Australian aid, in recent years there has been a shift to a small number of large, complex contracts that are designed to improve effectiveness but also increase implementation risk.

Pacific links: Tony de Brum, PNG’s new parliament, giant African snails and more

  • The Solomon Islands’ plans to use a subsidiary of the Chinese company Huawei to install an undersea cable to Australia have raised security concerns in Canberra as Huawei was banned from participating in Australia's National Broadband Network. There are also questions around the tender process and allegations of corruption have been levelled at the Solomon Islands ruling party over the deal.
     
  • Marshallese political leader and climate change advocate Tony de Brum passed away on Monday. He was instrumental in his country’s independence and spoke out on nuclear disarmament and the threat his people faced from rising sea levels on the global stage.
     
  • Papua New Guinea’s 10th parliament has officially opened. Prime Minister O’Neill’s address highlighted the government’s plans for the APEC summit in 2018.
     
  • On Devpolicy, Michael Wesley writes on the historical significance of the Australia-PNG relationship for both countries and explains its role in Australia’s earliest independent foreign policy development.
     
  • Fiona Hukula delivered a fantastic speech at the PNG Update that’s now available online, reflecting on the issues of gender, culture and development in the wake of the elections. She ended on an optimistic note, calling for increased understanding of the strengths of Papua New Guinea like the focus on the community.
     
  • This photo story from the UNDP shows the recovery efforts that are still underway in Vanuatu after Cyclone Pam in 2015. The traditional knowledge and skills of ni-Vanuatu people have been central to their resilience.
     
  • Biosecurity doesn’t get a lot of attention in the Pacific but it has come to the fore recently in Solomon Islands where people are struggling to deal with the Giant African Snail’s impact on livelihoods and the environment.
     
  • The UNDP in PNG has coordinated a two-day dialogue with women leaders to discuss the lack of women’s political representation. There are no women in PNG 's new parliament.

 

Pacific links: Solomon Islands PM, PNG’s cabinet, Guam and more

  • Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop addressed an audience in Suva over the weekend to provide more clarity on Australia's new approach to the Pacific, foreshadowed last year by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. James Batley provides excellent analysis for The Interpreter.
     
  • Papua New Guinea's Prime Minister Peter O'Neill has announced his 33-member cabinet, and is soon to announce a 100-day action plan on management of the economy (hopefully with an accompanying and much-needed supplementary budget).
     
  • While most in the country appear committed to persevere and work with the new government, violence continues in the Highlands provinces, particularly in Enga, where the death toll is mounting.
     
  • As the dust settles from the election, Sean Dorney is providing excellent analysis on surprises from this election, and the poor state of the electoral roll. A final piece will discuss lessons learnt and changes needed for 2022. At DevPolicy, Terence Wood looks at the winners and losers in the election.
     
  • Nic Maclellan weighs in on the exploitation within Australia's horticulture industry (which includes Pacific Islands seasonal workers), arguing for the need for union protection.
     
  • Guam has been in the headlines in recent weeks. The New York Times discusses the real risk facing the small island nation: climate change.
     
  • The Pacific Islands Forum is pushing for members to develop regional foreign policy to counter expanding risks in the Pacific.
     
  • Matthew Dornan and I have written a new journal article looking at trends in foreign aid in the Pacific. A summary is available here.
     
  • Finally, Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare is in Australia this week on his first official visit to the country. The visit includes signing a new security treaty to enable rapid response, which Sogavare hopes will never be used. Sogavare also addressed the Lowy Institute on a wide range of topics:
     

Aid & development links: How rich are you? Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, the case for optimism and more

  • FT Data takes a look at how global income inequality has shifted since the Global Financial Crisis. The Washington Post discusses why it is so much worse in the US than other rich countries.
     
  • CARE has a sobering and powerful advocacy tool showing how your income compares with the rest of the world. Most readers (in the developed world) will fit comfortably in the top end of the 1%.
     
  • Brookings discusses what President Trump’s ‘America First’ budget means for the future of US foreign aid. Meanwhile, Publish What You Fund has complimented USAID on its improving aid transparency. Australia should take note.
     
  • The Guardian provides a candid biography of Liberian President and trailblazer Ellen Johnson Sirleaf.
     
  • Corrupt governments are seen as the single most important reason poor countries are poor. Charles Kenny debunks this assumption, arguing that luck and geography has a lot more to do with it. 
     
  • Despite many grim headlines, a growing number of influential thinkers are convinced the world has never had it so good. The Guardian dives into whether the optimists are justified.
     
  • Speaking of optimism, our world in data has a cool graph showing population growth since 1961 at +137% but cereal production (in large part thanks to improved yields) growing by +280%.

  • Finally, the ANU Australasian Aid Conference has announced the keynotes for next year’s February conference; Penny Wong and Nancy Birdsall. Early bird registration is now available.

Papua New Guinea's election surprises

This is the first of several articles for The Interpreter by Lowy Institute Nonresident Fellow and former long-time Papua New Guinea correspondent Sean Dorney, who was in PNG for the elections as part of the Commonwealth's PNG Election Observer Mission.

The most surprising thing for me about the 2017 Papua New Guinea Election was the number of sitting MPs who were defeated.

No fewer than 55 were rejected by their constituents. At the time of writing one seat remained to be declared (Southern Highlands Provincial, where fighting not only delayed any result but also forced the counting to be shifted out of the province entirely). Of the other 110 seats, a few were not being recontested by the incumbent Member, so that figure of 55 means that just over half of the old Members who stood again were thrown out.

But, I hear you murmur, isn't this just typical of past PNG elections?

True, massive turnover has been a feature of elections in Papua New Guinea, but never before have sitting MPs had so much state money at their disposal. For the past few years they have had K15 million (A$6 million) each per year to spend in their electorates. The majority of this funding comes from one program, the District Support Improvement Program (DSIP). Those challenging the incumbents claimed to international observers that this created an uneven contest.

I was anticipating that such an enormous advantage would result in a significant change to that historical record of big turnovers and that well over half the outgoing MPs would win again. But no. Either many members did not spend the money properly (Queensland's real estate market was a likely side beneficiary of some MP spending), or PNG voters are smarter and less influenced by cash and project handouts than Prime Minister Peter O'Neill and I expected.

For O'Neill's party, MPs fared worse than the rest. His People's National Congress (PNC) lost 34 sitting Members, just over 60% of those who faced the voters. Only 21 were re-elected, but the PNC did win seven seats it did not hold before, and so wound up with 28 – almost double the number of the second-largest party in the new parliament, the National Alliance. Consequently, O'Neill was invited to have the first go at forming a government.

This election also witnessed the resurrection of the PANGU Party. Sam Basil was the only PANGU Member in the outgoing parliament, but he pulled in nine others this election – six of them from his own province, Morobe. Basil was one of only six MPs to win on first preferences. Of course, O'Neill did as well. William Duma was also successful on first preferences – his United Resources Party won ten seats.

Six other parties won multiple seats (from two to five each) and no fewer than 12 parties won just a single seat. A total of 14 independents won – all newcomers.

Under Papua New Guinea's limited preferential voting (LPV) system, voters have to nominate their first, second and third preferences for candidates they want to represent them in the parliament. One of the reasons counting takes so long is that in the vast majority of seats, very few of the leading candidates score even 20% of first preference votes. And with an average of more than 30 candidates per seat, the elimination of those at the bottom goes on and on until one candidate gets 50% plus one of the votes still in play.

For example, in the electorate of Karimui-Nomane Open in the Chimbu Province in the Highlands, there were 47 candidates. And while two mysteriously did not even vote for themselves (both recording zero votes), the remaining 45 candidates scored from one to 4485 votes. That leading candidate after first preferences was on just 11% of the 39,029 total valid votes.

As the eliminations of each successive candidate at the bottom continued, the preferences were distributed to those who remained. If the preferences went to candidates already excluded, then that vote was deemed no longer in play, or 'exhausted'.

In Karimui-Nomane, no winner emerged until only two of the 47 candidates were left. More than 22,000 votes had been exhausted before Geoffrey Kama of the Triumph Heritage Empowerment (THE) Party scrambled over the line with 54% of the remaining 16,832 valid votes. Kama wrested that seat off O'Neill's PNC. The outgoing PNC MP Mogerema Sigo Wei could manage only 4% of first preferences and, though he stayed in the race for quite a while, he was the 42nd candidate eliminated.

Some analysts have drawn attention to what has been described as large numbers of 'ghost voters' being added in seats the PNC held going into the election. If there were any in Karimui-Nomane, they did not help Mogerema Sigo Wei very much.

In a future article, I will discuss the state of the PNG's electoral roll and how parliament's 40-year-long refusal to allow any electoral boundary changes has led to wildly varying seat sizes and puts PNG at odds with its own laws and international best practice.  

Peter O’Neill returns for a second term

Papua New Guinea’s Parliament has today returned Peter O’Neill as Prime Minister for a second five-year term, defeating a spirited coalition of parties known as ‘The Alliance’ in a vote 60 to 46.

The returning Prime Minister will have many questions to answer for the general conduct of this year’s elections, the ninth in our nearest neighbour’s short history. The election has been marred by violence, numerous allegations of malfeasance, an attempted kidnapping, and comical court proceedings. A common feature across the country was the poor state of the electoral roll. Thousands of Papua New Guineans, many of whom voted in 2012, were disenfranchised, ineligible to vote because their names did not appear on the updated list. Independent observers have called the state of the electoral roll ‘alarming’, and it is the largest single issue that threatens the legitimacy of the election. Bill Standish provides a great summary of the election's ups and downs.

Now that he has been returned to the office, the Prime Minister faces the substantial challenge of leading the nation. The PNC-led government has committed to prioritising health, education and infrastructure. But before it can do any of this, it must get its house in order. As the PNG MYEFO statement released yesterday (summarised here) reveals, the government’s fiscal situation is dangerously untenable. It needs to take immediate steps to correct its previous mismanagement of the economy if it is to deliver on the ambitions set out in its policy platform, the second Alotau Accord.

In addition to these immediate challenges, the government has significant issues on the horizon that will need to be delicately managed. The first is the hosting of the APEC leaders’ summit next year, followed by the promised Bougainville independence referendum in 2019. With many senior members of the former government not retaining their seats or now in opposition, quick and effective decision-making will be even more difficult. For a summary of O’Neill’s first term take a look at this brilliant summary from Ron May.

One surprising development in this election was the ability of the rival bloc, ‘The Alliance’, to pose a serious threat given O’Neill was in such a dominant position at the outset. The Coalition - made up of prominent political parties including the resurgent Pangu Pati and the National Alliance, as well as independents such as former Prime Minister Mekere Morauta - got within striking distance of forming government. Hopefully many of their number will resist the allure and benefits of joining government and bring legitimacy and robust debate back to the legislature that has in recent years been marginalised due to the government’s super-majority position.

While it is easy to fall into the trap of painting a negative picture of the electoral process in PNG, I always remind myself what a marvel it is that this nation is able to run an election in the first place. More than 3340 candidates vied for 111 seats. There were 10,830 polling places and 28,000 polling workers spread across some of the most rugged and remote conditions on the planet. To me, this series of photos epitomises everyday Papua New Guineans’ commitment to the ideal of democracy. The electoral processes need more support, but they are still a marvel to behold.

Emotions have run high in this election, and we will have more questions than answers about the irregularities for months to come. There is great fear that tensions will boil over after today’s result. Let us hope cooler heads prevail in the weeks to come, and that this government can deliver on what it has promised to all Papua New Guineans.

Pacific links: PNG election drama, bringing Pacific languages to life

  • PNG’s Parliament will sit today for the first time since the election and is expected to vote for Prime Minister and Speaker. Peter O’Neill has said that his coalition has secured 56 members, enough for him to reclaim the position of PM. Stefan Armbruster provides an excellent overview here.
     
  • The end of the election was not without drama. Last Thursday, the elected member for Ijivitari, Richard Masere of the National Alliance party, suffered an attempted kidnapping by members of the People’s National Congress Party.
     
  • On the same day, former Prime Minister Sir Mekere Morauta was named as the winner in the seat of Moresby North-West but the Returning Officer went rogue and declared the third placed candidate Joseph Tonde in front of a small group of media, the candidate and his supporters. Soon after the Electoral Commissioner announced the second declaration was invalid and confirmed Sir Mekere was the winner. Morauta released this statement about the incident, and Sir Mekere Morauta discusses it in the video below:




     

  • PNG’s Treasury has released its Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook, an important reminder of the priorities for the next government. Paul Flanagan highlights the economic mismanagement of the former government.
     
  • Global Witness has released a new report on the shocking impacts of illegal logging and associated land grabs in PNG, which documents the failure to screen out illegal timber from global supply chains. The Financial Times has summarised the report here.
     
  • Linguists and academics are using virtual reality technology to bring an archive of endangered Pacific languages for life in Australian museums.  
     
  • A new exhibition, ‘The Long Story’ will open on 19 August at Brisbane’s Gallery of Modern Art to explore representations of history, connection to land and the contestation of public image and space in contemporary Pacific and Asian art.


     

Pacific links: PNG’s election, Australia’s inconsistent approach, Manus and more

  • Over half the seats in Papua New Guinea's national election are still to be declared after more than two weeks of counting. Four of the country's provinces have seen violent unrest since polling completed – four died over the weekend in Enga Province.
     

  • Radio New Zealand International's Johnny Blades has put together an interesting overview of the contenders for the top job in PNG, and some up and coming politicians to keep an eye on.  
     

  • It's now expected that PNG will have no female MPs in the next parliament, with the last of the three incumbent women MPs, Delilah Gore, losing her seat and none of the other female candidates expected to win. It's an opportune moment to look back at this post from earlier in the year from Julien Barbara and Kerryn Baker on improving the chances for female candidates in Melanesian elections.
     

  • Joanne Wallis spoke to Pacific Beat about her new book on Australia's policy in the Pacific, which argues that Australia's influence in the region is waning because of an inconsistent foreign policy approach.
     

  • On Friday, the Secretariat of the Pacific Community's 26 members will be meeting for their conference and 70th anniversary celebrations. A proposed Pacific Ocean Science Centre will be on the agenda for ministers.  
     

  • ANU is calling for papers for a special issue of the Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies journal on the Pacific Islands in the 21st Century.
     

  • Stefan Armbruster tells the story of Manus Island's first refugees, who came from West Papua 50 years ago and have now been offered PNG citizenship.

Pacific links: PNG’s O’Neill keeps his seat, Mr Tomato, the Cook Islands budget and more

  • Dysfunction in the Papua New Guinea election continues, with claims of suspicious ghost voters turning up on the electoral roll and the resignation of the recently formed Election Advisory Committee. As always, Bill Standish provides an excellent overview.
     
  • The elections have also taken a bizarre turn, with electoral commissioner Patilias Gamato requesting a gag order against an anti-corruption campaigner to stop being called 'Mr Tomato'.
     
  • In what looks to be a swipe at Gamato, the presiding Justice Collin Makail ordered the Statement of Claim be published in newspapers in full, adding fuel to the fire of this distraction.
     
  • Results from the election are starting to emerge. Peter O’Neill has retained his seat and can now start the important task of Coalition building, despite a court case being mounted against ‘unconstitutional’ Sunday voting in his electorate.
     
  • The Speaker, Fisheries Minister and Housing Minister have all lost their seats and Health Minister Michael Malabag looks set to do the same. O’Neill’s PNC party is still forecast to secure the largest number of seats and be called on to form government.  
     
  • Vanuatu’s deputy Prime Minister has called for the Pacific Islands Forum to consider having a permanent model or arrangement like that of RAMSI to help island countries with law and order and natural disaster challenges.
     
  • A marae in French Polynesia has been awarded world heritage status after 20 years of campaigning from the territory.
     
  • The Cook Islands has handed down the largest budget in the country’s history totalling more than US$200 million.
     
  • Matthew Dornan and Neelesh Gounder assess the ‘election bonanza’ of the 2017/18 Fiji budget.

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